2005 Hurricane Season Predictions

As are most Floridians, I am watching the 2005 Hurricane Season Predictions with trepidation. It is certainly true that though past history does not reflect the activity we experienced last season, it is not unlikely that Florida will remain a target in the future. Perhaps we won't get a four time, all-star, trophy-winning devastator like last summer, but it feels the same. Experience has made us wary. If just Charley had hit us, we would have had a season to note...comment on in passing...and, except for residents of Orlando, wouldn't have had much to say. Instead, we found ourselves at ground zero for two devastating hurricanes, weeks after Charley's unexpected fury, and days away from our fourth storm, Ivan, spanked the panhandle.

Again, my husband reassures me that this kind of activity is unlikely, remote, and not liable to be reproduced any time soon. Yet, this year Dr. William Gray and the Colorado State University have continued the active trend of last year into this one, with 13 Named Storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

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ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2005

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 1 April
Climatology (in parentheses) 2004 2005

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Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 65
Hurricanes (H)(5.9) 7
Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5) 35
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0) 7
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 135

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 73% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 53% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 41% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

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http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/april2005/


Of course, Dr. Gray doesn't, and can't predict landfall, but with these numbers, it seems likely that we are in for another busy and for some, stressful, season.

It's funny that this time last season I was ready to deliver our third child, born a month before being whisked away in a whirlwind of chaos to evacuate not once, but twice. Like the memory of my labor is still unfortunately fresh in my mind, I find myself in the same predicament this year. Same bat cave...same bat-weather. Here I am again, imminently due, with the pain of both labor and the havoc, devastation, and fear caused by the previous hurricane season fresh as can be in my mind. In fact...I believe this baby was conceived during an evacuation. That doesn't bode well for this season's elevated activity then!

As it is, it seems like yesterday we fled our little home, after battening down the hatches against seemingly impossible odds, with our lives and hearts packed tightly into our Jeep. We returned to heart wrenching scenes of devastation few of us would have expected to see in our lifetime. In fact, I have only to open my front door to be reminded that we bear the scars of our last battle in the form of still-missing siding. This morning, I awoke to the lovely sounds of hammers as my dear neighbor finally gets her roof tarp torn off and fully replaced.

So to imagine that our hearts are in our throats a little, is justified. We aren't stocking up on water yet...or making runs on plywood and tarps...but our innocence has been lost, and our fears are fresh and real. We leave ourselves to the fates of wind and weather, and pray for safety in a season that seems determined to remind us that life is short and can change in the blink of an eye...of a hurricane. God bless us, everyone.